In the ever-evolving world of baseball, there's always a buzz around the newest talent, and right now, the chatter is all about the "Keeper Babe of Day." This intriguing term, trending among stat geeks and fantasy baseball managers alike, refers to the best starting pitcher in a given day based on advanced analytics. But what does that really mean, and how can you spot the next big thing? Let's dive in.
The term "Keeper Babe" is a play on Babe Ruth, the legendary slugger of yesteryear. Just as Ruth was known for his monstrous home runs, a Keeper Babe is known for keeping hitters off the bases, racking up strikeouts, and earning wins. But finding the next Keeper Babe isn't as simple as looking at the old-school stats.
Understanding Advanced Analytics
To find the Keeper Babe of Day, you need to dig deeper than just wins and losses. You need to understand advanced metrics like xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), K%, BB%, and SV%.
xFIP, for instance, measures what a pitcher's ERA would look like if they had league-average luck on balls in play. It helps account for factors like home runs that the pitcher may not have full control over. Meanwhile, K% and BB% are simply the percentage of a pitcher's plate appearances that end in a strikeout or a walk, respectively. Finally, SV% represents the likelihood of a pitcher closing out a game.
xFIP - The Ace in the Hole
xFIP is a powerful tool for evaluating pitchers because it strips out some of the luck factors that can skew traditional stats. A low xFIP typically indicates a pitcher with excellent control over their pitches and the ability to miss bats. To find the Keeper Babe, look for pitchers with xFIPs in the 2s or 3s.
For example, in 2021, Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers had an xFIP of 2.44—which was the lowest in the majors. His incredible control (just 4.9% walk rate) and high strikeout rate (35.4%) contributed to this elite mark. Despite a rocky start to his career, Burnes' strong xFIP should have clued fantasy managers in on his potential as a Keeper Babe.
K% and BB% - The Goldilocks Zone
To be a Keeper Babe, a pitcher needs to strike out batters and avoid walking them. Fortunately, these stats are straightforward to understand and factor into your decision-making.
A healthy K% could be anything above 20%, depending on the league-wide average. However, to truly be a Keeper Babe, you'll want pitchers who significantly outperform the league average. As for BB%, the lower, the better. Anything below 8% is typically a good sign, and the elite pitchers will be well under that mark. In 2021, Gerrit Cole had a 29.6% K% and just a 5.5% BB%, demonstrating the Goldilocks zone of strikeouts and control.
Putting it All Together
While these advanced metrics can help you find the next Keeper Babe, they're best used in combination with other info about the pitcher's skills and surroundings. For instance, a pitcher with a great xFIP and high K% but playing in a hitter-friendly park might be less trustworthy than a similar pitcher with a better home venue.
Moreover, it's essential to consider the pitcher's health and workload. A pitcher with a history of injuries or who is throwing too many innings might not be the reliable Keeper Babe you're looking for. Instead, seek out pitchers with a balance of skills, young enough to have long-term potential, and preferably on teams with strong defenses and/or run support.
Prospecting the Next Keeper Babe
To discover the next Keeper Babe, you'll need to dig into minor league stats and scouting reports. Look for young pitchers with strong ceilings in K% and xFIP. For example, 2021 rookie the Texas Rangers' Spencer Howard had an 8.8% BB% and a 25.9% K%, suggesting big things to come.
Also, consider pitchers moving to better teams or ballparks. For instance, the Chicago Cubs' Marcus Stroman may not have been a top-tier pitcher with the Toronto Blue Jays, but his move to Wrigley Field and a more robust Bullpen has him flying under the radar as a potential Keeper Babe.
In the end, finding the Keeper Babe of Day requires more than just crunching numbers—it requires understanding the game, its renaissance of data, and the narratives playing out across the league. But with a little foresight and a willingness to dig deeper, you too can discover the next Babe Ruth of strikeouts and mowed-down batters.